Rybakina is a heavy favorite to return to the Wimbledon final, but she’s 0-2 against her opponent.

Barbora Krejcikova is set to face Elena Rybakina for a spot in the Wimbledon final. This is a match with extremely lopsided odds, as many believe Rybakina will be too much for Krejcikova to handle. After all, Rybakina won Wimbledon in 2022 and has consistently been viewed as one of the toughest players to beat on grass.

But don’t forget that Krejcikova is a former Grand Slam champion herself. She won Roland Garros just three years ago, and I tend to think that she’s starting to recapture some of that form. With that in mind, I’m not expecting this to be a straightforward match.

Krejcikova has defeated Danielle Collins and Jelena Ostapenko in her last two matches, which was a bit of a gauntlet. Both of those players are absolute sluggers, making them hard to beat on the grass. But Krejcikova was able to pass both tests, which should only make her stronger heading into this contest. Rybakina has a little more overall game than both of those players, but she is a power player first and foremost. And if Krejcikova’s shot variety was able to give Collins and Ostapenko trouble, she can probably throw Rybakina off, too.

Krejcikova has also had success in this matchup in the past: she’s 2-0 against Rybakina. One of those wins came in Melbourne in a match that wasn’t part of the WTA Tour. If you want to throw that out, be my guest. But the other was a 2022 clash on indoor hard courts in Ostrava, where Krejcikova won 3-6, 7-6 (4), 6-4. Those were very fast conditions, and Rybakina’s serve wasn’t enough to blow Krejcikova off the court. And while Rybakina did serve wonderfully against Elina Svitolina last match, I don’t think she’ll be untouchable against Krejcikova.

Overall, Krejcikova’s ability to switch up the height of her balls with slice shots and other types of changeups, while also having the ability to hit winners, is tough on a player like Rybakina. And I believe that will ultimately give her a shot at winning this match. That said, I’m taking Krejcikova to win a set in this match, and I love that it’s available at plus-money odds. Rybakina probably should win overall, but Krejcikova has a better chance than the odds suggest. We have also seen Rybakina struggle as a heavy favorite late in tournaments—just look at what happened when she faced Jasmine Paolini in the Roland Garros quarterfinals.

Pick: Krejcikova +1.5 Sets (+125)